Bloomberg Fights the Good Fight
This innocuous Bloomberg article, of
only slight interest to the general public, had me re-reading it
three times to try and figure out what troubled me. It's a simple
rehash of what everyone knows already, that vanishingly small portion
of 'everyone' that pays attention anyway, but the tone and phrasing
bugged me. Indulge me.
Bloomberg is a U.S. company that
delivers market news to subscribers in the investment community. It
has grown tremendously over the years and is now also a huge 'news'
organization. It was founded by Michael Bloomberg, the now former
Mayor of New York City, and has a very strong credibility, based- I
believe- mostly on its core product. This credibility akin to the New
York Times or the Wall Street Journal is part of what the problem is.
It begins with a problematic headline:
Let's take just that apart for a
moment. The phrase stopped, or halted in its tracks has a particular
gist. It is a sudden action- or more correctly- a sudden cessation of
action. It is also indicative of surprise. Other indications
depending on context include fear, an inability for further immediate
action and a promise of immediate consequence for the 'halted.' The
context of this particular headline indicates that the halted, U.S.
oil, had been targeted by the perpetrator of the halt: OPEC.
Furthermore, this situation seems to be
warranted as U.S. oil is suggested to have caused OPEC 'Pain.' With
me so far?
There
is so much wrong with this premise that it hurts to think about it.
Especially that the pain referred to was self-inflicted.
As for surprise, nobody who has paid
the least attention to the subject is surprised. After all the
article is talking about a meeting that was planned, everyone knows
what they are going to talk about, and everyone knows which players
are taking what sides in the debate. It is not only an editorial
posing as a headline, it is a projection, and it is likely an
incorrect one at that.
Now the subheds:
U.S. oil output almost back down to
level of last OPEC meeting
Saudi-led strategy is paying off, says
Societe Generale
The first subhed is informational but
people paying the least bit of attention would have already known
that. It's a rehash. No real news here. But the phrasing seems to
celebrate the fact. Maybe it's just me. The second subhed is more
interesting and leads me to remember another article I read a few
days ago. Here's the Telegraph from October 18th:
“Almost a year ago Rafael Ramirez, Venezuela’s long-serving former oil minister, emerged from a tense meeting of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) looking red faced and furious.”
Why was Rafael red-faced? Because Saudi
Arabia refused to lower production to raise prices- which is slowly
killing the Caracas regime. That is the Saudi-led strategy referred
to.
Venezuela is particularly suffering
because of its adherence to left wing policies that has pushed its
output into the gutter. Though the country has the world's largest
oil reserves it can only pump one-tenth of the capacity of Saudi
Arabia. To add insult to injury Saudi Arabia has managed its wealth
into a rather healthy cash reserve whilst Venezuela has squandered
its good fortune.
So what is the point behind Saudi
Arabia's current policy? The real story is that OPEC was once
successful in killing a U.S. industry and is trying to do it again.
Back in the late seventies and into the eighties America had found
oil in Shale and other places that had been hitherto unavailable.
After a peak output of around 10
million barrels a day in 1970 easy oil began to get harder and output
fell. Prices began to rise and then in 1973 the U.S. assisted Israel
during the Yom Kippur war. This pissed off the Arabs in OPEC so they
declared an embargo against the U.S. and spiked the price of oil by a
multiple of four.
U.S. oil output declined until around
1977 when high prices encouraged more production from existing wells,
and then there was shale. The U.S. spent billions ramping up shale
oil production and total oil output rose until around 1980 when OPEC
turned on the spigots. Prices fell dramatically and the shale
industry died on the vine. Even so total output continued to increase
until around 1985 to around 9 million barrels a day and then started
to fall again. Then around 2009 we started fracking for realz.
Now for a simple fisking of the rest of
this trash:
“After a year suffering the economic consequences of the oil price slump, OPEC is finally on the cusp of choking off growth in U.S. crude output.”
The painful imagery here continues with
the choking and the suffering. The 'oil price slump' is a rather
passive expression, and though one may attribute this slump to
increased U.S. production, as our accompanying article shows,
Venezuela is pissed at the Saudis for not fixing the suffering now.
“The nation’s production is almost back down to the level pumped in November, when the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries switched its strategy to focus on battering competitors and reclaiming market share. As the U.S. wilts, demand for OPEC’s crude will grow in 2015, ending two years of retreat, the International Energy Agency estimates.”
Unlike the dictatorships of OPEC,
American companies compete against each other. This is not kumbaya.
This is not 'wilting.' The system has worked and production has
adjusted accordingly. Far from 'battering' its competitors (oy vey,
such violence), OPEC has done exactly zilch. Zero. Nada. As the
assholes in Caracas fume impotently while the Arabs batter them I
reach for the popcorn.
And the next sentence is just
economically illiterate. There is no such things as OPEC crude versus
U.S. crude. Crude is crude. Period. The only way OPEC crude demand
would grow out of proportion to U.S. crude is if the U.S. left the
market. Oil is fungible. Like tin, or steel. Or pork bellies. The
author is projecting his ignorance. Or not. I report you decide.
“While cratering prices and historic cutbacks in drilling have taken their toll on the U.S., OPEC members have also paid a heavy price. A year of plunging government revenues, growing budget deficits and slumping currencies has left several members grappling with severe economic problems. The fact that the U.S. oil boom kept going for about six months after the group’s November decision also means OPEC has so far succeeded only in bringing the market back to where it started.”
The historic cutbacks they talk about
are only possible from the historic increase. And as we've seen, as
more oil hits the market, prices retreat. This is the way it's
supposed to work. The 'success' of the policy is certainly debatable,
and is being debated, by the member countries. And don't forget, most
of the market is in futures, not just the spot market where the
little guys must play. And as damned near every OPEC country is at
odds in some way with the U.S., and nobody here has yet lost his
shirt, the suffering of the fools that are losing theirs is a happy
occasion for us.
“It’s taken a hell of a long time and it will continue to take a long time -- U.S. oil production has been more resilient than people thought,” said Mike Wittner, head of oil markets research at Societe Generale SA in London. “The bottom line is the re-balancing has begun.”
Mmmm, could that sentence have included
the word 'unexpectedly?” Well if your frame of reference is that of
the market manipulating OPEC members sitting in their palaces, folks
that could not even run their oil business without the outside help
of market countries, this is a problem of perspective. The American
businesses knew from the get-go that the market price would fall with
increased production and planned accordingly. We are resilient
because now we know what we're doing. This ain't your father's shale
play. We invented this business. If the lesser members of the club
get their way and production is lowered, the price will jump back up,
and the Americans are ready-willing-and-able to ramp up production.
“OPEC abandoned its traditional role of paring production to prevent oversupply last November as a tide of new oil from the U.S. eroded its share of world markets. The group chose instead to keep pumping, allowing the subsequent price slump to squeeze competitors with higher costs. Its representatives will meet in Vienna Wednesday with non-member countries including Russia for technical talks.”
So the author uses weasel words like
'oversupply' to mask not just the traditional role, but the only role
that OPEC performs, to prop up prices for a market that they control.
When new competition comes in they drop prices to make entering the
market a loser. They take a short term income hit but when the
competitor drops out they jack up the prices again. The problem is
that the market has changed and the socialist despots and dictators
have not kept up. The squeeze is being felt elswhere.
It's interesting to note the inclusion
of Russia in the talks. Russia has enjoyed an out-sized influence in
events, especially Eastern European events, through their near
monopoly on natural gas to the West. The U.S. is now producing so
much natural gas from 'fracking' that it has converted two LNG port
facilities to export from import. The Russkies aren't too happy with
our success either.
“The plan appears to be working. Oil remains 33 percent lower than when OPEC revealed its strategy on Nov. 27, trading for $48.46 a barrel in London at 5:28 p.m. Tuesday. U.S. crude production has retreated about 500,000 barrels a day from the three-decade peak reached in June to 9.1 million a day in the week to Oct. 9, according to data from the Energy Information Administration.
The losses will accelerate next year with a drop of 390,000 barrels a day in annual average production to 8.86 million barrels a day, according to the EIA. OPEC’s fortunes will improve as the U.S. declines, with the IEA predicting demand for the group’s crude climbing to 31.1 million barrels a day next year from 29.3 million in 2014.”
Here's the thing about competition, it
makes prices lower, that is the job of competition. Competition
breeds new ideas, new manufacturing techniques. It's why the market
system works and raises everyone's standard of living. When it is no
longer economically beneficial to compete the actor drops out of the
market. Many countries are chock-full of natural resources but have
no way to exploit them usually because of government policies.
Venezuela is a typical example. Though
they have the world's largest oil reserves they cannot get it out of
the ground without assistance. Because of that government's
incompetence they have ruined their own oil industry and have
alienated all but the most foolhardy available help. Thus the red
faces. $48.46 a barrel will not kill the U.S., it will kill Venezuela
and some others. It will severely damage another few economies. Like
Russia and Iran. Iran of course is a special basket case and it also
does not have the infrastructure to refine its own oil into gasoline.
As far as the EIA predictions I'll bet
a shiny drop of oil that they are based on the current pricing status
quo and nothing more. The minute oil prices rise U.S. industries will
ramp up supply and retain their market share.
““Their strategy is still working for them,” said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Plc in London. “It means pain now, but in the medium-to-long term they will reap the fruits of a more balanced market, moderated shale supplies, growing demand for oil and ultimately a higher price.”
The pain has been considerable. The average price of a selection of OPEC’s crudes has been about 46 percent lower this year than in 2014, equivalent to a loss of export earnings of roughly $370 billion.Saudi Arabia, the main architect of OPEC’s new strategy, will have a budget deficit of 20 percent of gross domestic product this year, the IMF estimates. While the kingdom has been able to tap foreign currency reserves and curb spending to cope with the slump, less wealthy OPEC members have fewer options. The threat of political unrest is mounting in the “Fragile Five” of Algeria, Iraq, Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela, according to RBC Capital Markets LLC.”
That first part sounds like
cheer-leading to me. A more balanced market? Moderated shale
supplies? WTF? What about that political unrest in the Fragile Five?
And the political unrest isn't mounting- it's there already. Russia
is already distracting its population with anti-American rhetoric and
adventurism in Crimea, Ukraine, Syria and not so veiled threats to
the Baltic region. For the nonce it is leaving the rest of Eastern
Europe alone, but winter is coming. If Russia and OPEC can draw down
gas operations in the States it would be to their benefit.
“Venezuela, whose currency has lost 87 percent of its value on the black market in the past year, is urging fellow OPEC members to reverse course and curb production to support prices. Eulogio Del Pino, the nation’s oil minister, will propose the reintroduction of a targeted price range – a policy the group abandoned in 2005 -- at the meeting in Vienna Wednesday.
Iran agrees that OPEC ought to reduce output to engineer a price recovery to $70, but it’s doubtful the group will enact any measures to do this, the nation’s Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said Oct. 19. The Persian Gulf nation is planning to boost its own output by 1 million barrels a day next year if international sanctions are lifted.
Faltering U.S. supplies show the Saudi-led strategy is paying off, said Societe Generale’s Wittner. “If there are folks in the oil market who expect this is going to end with a new game plan, they’re going to be very disappointed,” he said.”
So again, so sad for the assholes in
Venezuela. I'll get extra butter for my popcorn as I watch your
corrupt government overthrown. At least the Iranians are honest. If
Obama manages to lift sanctions, thankyouverymuchmr.asshole, they are
going to ignore the policy that they are asking to implement. I wish
we'd listen to them when they shout 'death to America!'
Which leads to the most interesting and
out of place quote in the whole piece from Mssr. Wittner. With all
the jaw-jawing going on here nothing is going to change according to
him. The U.S. will keep on doing what it does best and reduce prices
through competition, the Saudis will continue to screw over their
fellow OPEC members and hope to catch up later and boneheads like the
article's author will continue to misunderstand, misinterpret and
expose his own prejudices.
That the editors at Bloomberg let this
tripe through the editorial process either shows a profound
disinterest in decent reporting and the need to fill 'column inches'
or they are simply of the same ilk as the rest of the mainstream
liberal media. Cheer-leading anything but America and hoping for its
comeuppance.
Lucky for the rest of us there doesn't
seem to be anything the lefties can do to stop the fracking, though
they have tried mightily. If the industry and the country at large
was worried about lower prices, which we're not, we wouldn't be
trying to get the damned Keystone Pipeline put in and Hillary and
Obama wouldn't have blocked it. If the administration wanted to help
it could make it legal for us to export our own crude oil. Oh, you
didn't know? Well, now you do. You're welcome.
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